Low Fertility Rates are Exaggerated

This extremely important paper argues that fertility rates in high-income countries are not as low as normally quoted.[1] Indeed, contemporary very low rates (e.g. 1.3 children per woman in Italy) are partly an artefact of delayed pregnancy, not reduced pregnancy. The standard method that imputes age specific rates from earlier cohorts underestimate life-time fertility over the epoch when age of first pregnancy is increasing. This means that dependency ratios are not as low as had been assumed hitherto. You can see why the CLAHRC WM Director thought this paper very important.

— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director

References:

  1. Myrskylä M, Goldstein JR, Cheng YA. New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals. Pop Develop Review. 2013; 39(1): 31-56.
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s