Brain health in early childhood is a recurring theme of your News Blog. Peter Chilton referred me to an interesting article in Nature Human Behaviour published at the end of last year. This study was based on a prospective study of children in the South Island of New Zealand. The investigators wanted to determine the prognosis for the 20% of the population with the worst brain health indicators at age three. These indicators include single parent family; low socioeconomic group; poor self-control; and low IQ. Outcome variables covered a range of important economically burdensome outcomes, such as obesity, cigarette smoking, and crime. These variables were harvested from various databases where health and crime statistics are recorded. A 20% ‘segment’ of this young population could be defined which predicted 80% of crime, and similar high rates on other outcomes. This 20:80 ratio, called the Pareto ratio, is often encountered in social science – for example, wealth distributes itself roughly in this proportion across many societies (about 20% of people control 80% of wealth). The authors say that their study shows plenty of ‘headroom’ for preventive interventions. That is to say, society could achieve massive gains if health and social outcomes among the highest risk segment could be improved to average levels. We have discussed interventions, such as early childhood education, before.[2-4] Many studies show statistically significant and economically worthwhile results for such interventions, but the gains come nowhere near the theoretical headroom defined here. Likely this is because brain health at age three is only partly the result of remediable factors.
— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director
- Caspi A, Houts RM, Belsky DW, Harrington H, Hogan S, Ramrakha S, Poulton R, Moffitt TE. Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden. Nature Hum Behav. 2016; 1: 0005.
- Lilford RJ. Pregnancy before age 16 – dropping quite rapidly from a peak in 1997. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. February 10, 2017.
- Lilford RJ. If you want to reduce partner violence or teenage pregnancy, then teach algebra and history? NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. December 9, 2016.
- Lilford RJ. Evidence-based education (or how wrong the CLAHRC WM Director was). NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. July 15, 2016.