Tag Archives: Mortality

Another Spectacular Study Based on Demographic and Health Surveys

Under five mortality has dropped sharply around the world in the last few decades.[1] For example, in sub-Saharan Africa mortality for children aged 1-5 dropped from 42.7 per thousand in 2002-08 to 22.0 per thousand in 2009-14. The situation in twins was recently investigated using data from 90 Demographic and Health surveys across no less than 30 countries.[2] The decline in mortality was much less steep among twins than among singleton live births.

Twins are very vulnerable and have benefited less than singletons from the reduction in child mortality. Clearly, this group of vulnerable people needs special attention.

— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director

Reference:

  1. UNICEF. Under-Five Mortality. 2018.
  2. Monden CWS, Smits J. Mortality among twins and singletons in sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 2014: a pooled analysis of data from 90 Demographic and Health Surveys in 30 countries. Lancet Glob Health. 2017; 5: e673-9.
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Patient’s experience of hospital care at weekends

The “weekend effect”, whereby patients admitted to hospitals during weekends appear to be associated with higher mortality compared with patients who are admitted during weekdays, has received substantial attention from the health service community and the general public alike.[1] Evidence of the weekend effect was used to support the introduction of ‘7-day Service’ policy and associated changes to junior doctor’s contracting arrangement by the NHS,[2-4] which have further propelled debates surrounding the nature and causes of the weekend effect.

Members of the CLAHRC West Midlands are closely involved in the HiSLAC project,[5] which is an NIHR HS&DR Programme funded project led by Professor Julian Bion (University of Birmingham) to evaluate the impact of introducing 7-day consultant-led acute medical services. We are undertaking a systematic review of the weekend effect as part of the project,[6] and one of our challenges is to catch up with the rapidly growing literature fuelled by the public and political attention. Despite that hundreds of papers on this topic have been published, there has been a distinct gap in the academic literature – most of the published papers focus on comparing hospital mortality rates between weekends and weekdays, but virtually no study have compared quantitatively the experience and satisfaction of patients between weekends and weekdays. This was the case until we found a study recently published by Chris Graham of the Picker Institute, who has unique access to data not in the public domain, i.e. the dates of admission to hospital given by the respondents.[7]

This interesting study examined data from two nationwide surveys of acute hospitals in 2014 in England: the A&E department patient survey (with 39,320 respondents representing a 34% response rate) and the adult inpatient survey (with 59,083 respondents representing a 47% response rate). Patients admitted at weekends were less likely to respond compared to those admitted during weekdays, but this was accounted for by patient and admission characteristics (e.g. age groups). Contrary to the inference that would be made on care quality based on hospital mortality rates, respondents attending hospital A&E department during weekends actually reported better experiences with regard to ‘doctors and nurses’ and ‘care and treatment’ compared with those attending during weekdays. Patients who were admitted to hospital through A&E during weekends also rated information given to them in the A&E more favourably. No other significant differences in the reported patient experiences were observed between weekend and weekday A&E visits and hospital admissions. [7]

As always, some cautions are needed when interpreting these intriguing findings. First, as the author acknowledged, patients who died following the A&E visits/admissions were excluded from the surveys, and therefore their experiences were not captured. Second, although potential differences in case mix including age, sex, urgency of admission (elective or not), requirement of a proxy for completing the surveys and presence of long-term conditions were taken into account in the aforementioned findings, the statistical adjustment did not include important factors such as main diagnosis and disease severity which could confound patient experience. Readers may doubt whether these factors could overturn the finding. In that case the mechanisms by which weekend admission may lead to improved satisfaction Is unclear. It is possible that patients have different expectations in terms of hospital care that they receive by day of the week and consequently may rate the same level of care differently. The findings from this study are certainly a very valuable addition to the growing literature that starts to unfold the complexity behind the weekend effect, and are a further testament that measuring care quality based on mortality rates alone is unreliable and certainly insufficient, a point that has long been highlighted by the Director of the CLAHRC West Midlands and other colleagues.[8] [9] Our HiSLAC project continues to collect and examine qualitative,[10] quantitative,[5] [6] and economic [11] evidence related to this topic, so watch the space!

— Yen-Fu Chen, Principal Research Fellow

References:

  1. Lilford RJ, Chen YF. The ubiquitous weekend effect: moving past proving it exists to clarifying what causes it. BMJ Qual Saf 2015;24(8):480-2.
  2. House of Commons. Oral answers to questions: Health. 2015. House of Commons, London.
  3. McKee M. The weekend effect: now you see it, now you don’t. BMJ 2016;353:i2750.
  4. NHS England. Seven day hospital services: the clinical case. 2017.
  5. Bion J, Aldridge CP, Girling A, et al. Two-epoch cross-sectional case record review protocol comparing quality of care of hospital emergency admissions at weekends versus weekdays. BMJ Open 2017;7:e018747.
  6. Chen YF, Boyal A, Sutton E, et al. The magnitude and mechanisms of the weekend effect in hospital admissions: A protocol for a mixed methods review incorporating a systematic review and framework synthesis. Systems Review 2016;5:84.
  7. Graham C. People’s experiences of hospital care on the weekend: secondary analysis of data from two national patient surveys. BMJ Qual Saf 2017;29:29.
  8. Girling AJ, Hofer TP, Wu J, et al. Case-mix adjusted hospital mortality is a poor proxy for preventable mortality: a modelling study. BMJ Qual Saf 2012;21(12):1052-56.
  9. Lilford R, Pronovost P. Using hospital mortality rates to judge hospital performance: a bad idea that just won’t go away. BMJ 2010;340:c2016.
  10. Tarrant C, Sutton E, Angell E, Aldridge CP, Boyal A, Bion J. The ‘weekend effect’ in acute medicine: a protocol for a team-based ethnography of weekend care for medical patients in acute hospital settings. BMJ Open 2017;7: e016755.
  11. Watson SI, Chen YF, Bion JF, Aldridge CP, Girling A, Lilford RJ. Protocol for the health economic evaluation of increasing the weekend specialist to patient ratio in hospitals in England. BMJ Open 2018:In press.

Sudden Death in Sport is Rare

People with established health issues have an increased risk of sudden death during vigorous exercise. But the general population has a very low risk of death with strenuous exercise (any activity that increases metabolic rate by at least 6 times [i.e. >6 METs]) [1] – less than one death per 100,000 athlete years according to a recent study of deaths in people between the ages of 25 and 45, ascertained through an ambulance service.[2] But what about people older than 45, among whom I am numbered?!

— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director

Reference:

  1. World Health Organization. What is Moderate-Intensity and Vigorous-Intensity Physical Activity? [Online].
  2. Landry CH, Allan KS, Connelly KA, Cunningham K, Morrison LJ, Dorian P; for the Rescu Investigators. Sudden Cardiac Arrest during Participation in Competitive Sports. New Engl J Med. 2017; 377(20): 1943-53.

Calling All Men – Screening for Prostate Cancer Probably Does Save a Few Prostate Cancer Deaths

Two large randomised trials with 12 years follow-up.[1] [2] One shows reduction in prostate cancer deaths, the other produced a null result. But science cannot prove a null, and point estimates were favourable in both trials. Moreover, there were many differences in implementation of screening across the two large trials. So the authors of a recent study [3] amalgamated the individual research from each individual study and analysed the consolidated dataset to adjust for differences in screening intensity using a measure of the average time by which diagnosis is advanced by screening compared to not screening. This was calculated in different ways, but the results do suggest a screening effect on prostate cancer deaths of about 8%. Whether this translates into all-cause mortality is uncertain, as per a previous News Blog on this issue.[4] I was attracted to this paper, not only because prostate screening is a controversial and important public health issue, but also because it deals with a common scenario in contemporary clinical research – apparently contradictory trial results where one trial provides a null result and the other provides a positive result.

— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director

References:

  1. Schröder FH, Hugosson J, Roobol MJ, et al. Screening and prostate cancer mortality: results of the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) at 13 years of follow-up. Lancet. 2014; 384: 2027-35.
  2. Pinsky PF, Prorok PC, Yu K, et al. Extended mortality results for prostate cancer screening in the PLCO trial with median follow-up of 15 years. Cancer. 2017; 123: 592-9.
  3. Tsodikov A, Gulati R, Heijnsdijk AEM, et al. Reconciling the Effects of Screening on Prostate Cancer Mortality in the ERSPC and PLCO Trials. Ann Intern Med. 2017; 164: 449-55.
  4. Lilford RJ. Thyroid Cancer: Another Indolent Tumour Prone to Massive Over Diagnosis. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 24 March 2017.

Association Between Cigarette Price and Infant Mortality

In an effort to reduce smoking rates governments often increase the taxation levied on cigarettes. Previous research has shown that this is an effective strategy, including improvements in child health outcomes. However, tobacco companies often use differential pricing strategies to move the increased taxation on to their premium cigarettes. This lessens the effectiveness of increased taxes as it allows people to switch to the cheaper cigarettes instead. Researchers from Imperial College London set out to assess any associations between price rises, differential pricing (using data on the minimum and median cigarette prices) and infant mortality across 23 European countries.[1] This longitudinal study looked at more than 53.7m live births over a period of ten years. During this time the authors found that a median increase of €1 per pack of cigarettes was associated with 0.23 fewer deaths per 1000 live births in the year of the price hike (95% CI, -0.37 to -0.09), and a decline of 0.16 deaths per 1000 live births in the subsequent year (95% CI, -0.30 to -0.03). Using a counterfactual scenario, the authors estimated that, overall, cigarette price increases were associated with 9,208 fewer infant deaths (i.e. if cigarette prices had remained unchanged then there would have been 9,208 more deaths). Analysis of the price differentials showed that a 10% increase in the differential between the minimum and median priced cigarettes was associated with 0.07 more deaths per 1,000 live births the following year. Further, had there been no cost differential, they estimated that 3,195 infant deaths could have been avoided.

So, while increasing cigarette taxation can have a positive effect, there needs to be more of an effort to try to eliminate budget cigarettes. This is especially true in low-income countries where price differentials tend to be significantly higher than in high-income countries.

— Peter Chilton, Research Fellow

Reference:

  1. Filippidis FT, Laverty AA, Hone T, Been JV, Millett C. Association of Cigarette Price Differentials With Infant Mortality in 23 European Union Countries. JAMA Pediatr. 2017.

How Much Fruit and Veg is Enough?

We are often told that we should be eating five (or is it now ten?) portions of fruit and vegetables each day to protect against, amongst other things, cardiovascular disease (CVD).[1] However, such recommendations are generally based on research conducted in people from Europe, the USA, Japan and China. There is little data from countries in the Middle East, South America, Africa or South Asia.

The PURE study (Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology) set out to rectify this, recruiting 135,000 participants from 18 countries, ranging from high-income countries, such as Sweden, to low-income countries, such as India.[2] The research team documented the diet of these individuals at baseline (using questionnaires specific to each country), then followed them up for a median of 7.4 years, looking at cardiovascular-related clinical outcomes. As expected higher intakes of fruit, vegetables and legumes were associated with lower incidences of major CVD, myocardial infarction, and mortality (cardiovascular-related and all-cause). However, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was lowest for three to four servings (375-400g) per day (0.78, 95%CI 0.69-0.88), with no significant decrease with higher consumption.

It is more likely that consuming around 375g of fruit/vegetables/legumes per day will be within the financial reach of people living in poorer countries, compared to the various recommendations of 400-800g that are often seen in Europe and North America. Before we ditch that extra snack of carrot sticks, however, it is important to note that factors such as food type, nutritional quality, cultivation and preparation are likely to vary between countries, while other clinical outcomes, such as cancer, were not looked at in this study.

The authors are continuing to enrol more participants, and are hoping to re-examine their results in the future.

— Peter Chilton, Research Fellow

References:

  1. Oyebode O, Gordon-Dseagu V, Walker A, Mindell JS. Fruit and vegetable consumption and all-cause, cancer and CVD mortality: analysis of Health Survey for England data. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2014; 68(9): 856-62.
  2. Miller V, Mente A, Dehghen M, et al. Fruit, vegetable, and legume intake, and cardiovascular disease and deaths in 18 countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study. Lancet. 2017.

Should You Keep Drinking Coffee?

It is nice, at last, to find something that is it is really enjoyable and that is good for us. Recent News Blogs have carried articles on the harmful effects of red meat,[1] milk,[2] and alcohol.[3] But what about coffee? A recent article, based on over 500,000 people in ten European countries confirmed the already extensive literature showing that coffee is beneficial for health.[4] In fact, overall death rates were reduced by over 10%. There was a massive (over 50%) reduction in diseases of the digestive system, confirming the well-known beneficial effect of coffee on the liver. The trend was also favourable for heart disease and stroke. Many biochemical markers also moved in a favourable direction, including glycated haemoglobin, and C-reactive protein. The only bit of bad news pertained to ovarian cancer, where a 30% increased risk of death was noted. Reverse causality is always a possibility in non-experimental studies, even if, like this one, they are prospective. However, this is unlikely since the hazard ratios were unaltered if patients who died within eight years of recruitment were excluded.

— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director

References:

  1. Lilford RJ. An Issue of BMJ with Multiple Studies on Diet. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 4 August 2017.
  2. Lilford RJ. Two Provocative Papers on Diet and Health. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 12 December 2014.
  3. Lilford RJ. Alcohol and its Effects. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 18 August 2017.
  4. Gunter MJ, Murphy N, Cross AJ, et al. Coffee Drinking and Mortality in 10 European Countries. Ann Intern Med. 2017; 167: 236-47.

“We seek him here, we seek him there, Those Frenchies seek him everywhere.”

The notorious weekend mortality effect is every bit as elusive as the Scarlet Pimpernel. Recent studies have delved deeper into the possibility that the weekend effect is an artefact of admission of sicker patients at the weekend than on week days.[1] First, it has been shown that the mortality of all who present to the emergency department (i.e. admitted plus sent home) is the same over the weekend as over the rest of the week.[2] Second, patients who arrive by ambulance are generally much sicker than patients arriving by other means and the proportion who arrive by ambulance is higher over the weekend than over weekdays.[3] When controlling for method of arrival, most of the weekend effect disappears. Most, but not all. This paper provides further evidence that most estimates of the weekend effect are at least overestimates. Through Professor Julian Bion’s HiSLAC Study [4] we are evaluating the effect of weekend admission, not just on mortality, but also on the quality of care and the overall adverse event rate. We will use a Bayesian network to synthesise information across the causal chain and come up with a refined estimate of the effect of weekend admission, not only on mortality, but also on other adverse events.

— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director

References:

  1. Bray BD, Steventon A. What have we learnt after 15 years of research into the ‘weekend effect’? BMJ Qual Saf. 2017; 26: 607-10.
  2. Aldridge C, Bion J, Boyal A, et al. Weekend specialist intensity and admission mortality in acute hospital trusts in England: a cross-sectional study. Lancet. 2016. 388: 178-86.
  3. Anselmi L, Meacock R, Kristensen SR, Doran T, Sutton M. Arrival by ambulance explains variation in mortality by time of admission: retrospective study of admissions to hospital following emergency department attendance in England. BMJ Qual Saf. 2017; 26: 613-21.
  4. Chen Y, Boyal A, Sutton E, et al. The magnitude and mechanisms of the weekend effect in hospital admissions: A protocol for a mixed methods review incorporating a systematic review and framework synthesis. Syst Rev. 2016; 5: 84.

Declining Readmission Rates – Are They Associated with Increased Mortality?

I have always been a bit nihilistic about reducing readmission rates to hospitals.[1][2] However, I may have been overly pessimistic. A new study confirms that it is possible to reduce readmission rates by imposing financial incentives.[3] Importantly, this does not seem to have caused an increase in mortality – as might occur if hospitals were biased against re-admitting sick patients in order to avoid a financial penalty. “False null result” (type two error), do I hear you ask? Probably not, since the data are based on nearly seven million admissions. In fact, 30 day mortality rates were slightly lower among hospitals that reduced readmission rates.

— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director

References:

  1. Lilford RJ. If Not Preventable Deaths, Then What About Preventable Admissions? NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 6 May 2016.
  2. Lilford RJ. Unintended Consequences of Pay-For-Performance Based on Readmissions. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 13 January 2017.
  3. Joynt KE, & Maddox TM. Readmissions Have Declined, and Mortality Has Not Increased. The Importance of Evaluating Unintended Consequences. JAMA. 2017; 318(3): 243-4.

An Issue of BMJ with Multiple Studies on Diet

This News Blog often contains information about diet and health. For example, we have cited evidence that salt is enemy number one [1]; trans-fats are unremittingly bad news [2]; and large amounts of sugar are harmful.[3] After that the risks become really rather small – relative risks of about 20%. Fruit, and more especially vegetables, are good news. Milk is an unhealthy drink in adults (never intended for that purpose and galactose is harmful, unless removed during a fermentation process).[4] Three further studies of diet were included in a single recent issue of the BMJ.[5-7]

The first study by Etemadi, et al. looked at meat consumption in a large cohort of people (n= 536,969) who gave detailed dietary histories.[5] The evidence corroborates other studies in showing that red meat is harmful, increasing relative risk of death by about 20% in high meat eaters compared to moderate meat eaters. The difference is greater if the comparison is made with people who obtain almost all of their meat in the form of fish and chicken. The causes of death that showed greatest increases in risk with high red meat consumption were cancer, respiratory disease and liver disease. Surprisingly, perhaps, increased risk from stroke was nugatory. The increased risk in unprocessed meat is probably related to haem iron, and in processed meat to nitrates/nitrites – there are all pro-oxidant chemicals. Of course this is an association study, so some uncertainty remains. The main problem with meat, as the BMJ Editor points out,[8] is the harmful environmental effects; apparently animal husbandry contributes more to global warming than burning fossil fuels. I take the environmental effects seriously – perhaps we will one day vilify meat farmers more vociferously than we currently vilify tobacco farmers. After all, individuals don’t have to smoke, but cannot protect themselves from the harmful effects of pollution.

Meanwhile, for those who are interested, the other two relevant articles in this issue of the BMJ looked at avoiding gluten in people who do not have celiac disease (no benefit and evidence points towards harm),[6] and the beneficial effect of a low salt and fat diet on gout.[7]

— Richard Lilford, CLAHRC WM Director

References:

  1. Lilford RJ. Effects of Salt in Diet. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 17 October 2014.
  2. Lilford RJ. On Diet Again. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 23 October 2015.
  3. Lilford RJ. How Much Sugar is Too Much? NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 25 September 2015.
  4. Lilford RJ. Two Provocative Papers on Diet and Health. NIHR CLAHRC West Midlands News Blog. 12 December 2014.
  5. Etemadi A, Sinha R, Ward MH, Graubard BI, Inoue-Choi M, Dawsey SM, Abnet CC. Mortality from different causes associated with meat, heme iron, nitrates, and nitrites in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study: population based cohort study. BMJ. 2017; 357: j1957.
  6. Lebwohl B, Cao Y, Zong G, Hu FB, Green PHR, Neugut AI, Rimm EB, Sampson L, Dougherty LW, Giovannucci E, Willett WC, Sun Q, Chan AT. Long term gluten consumption in adults without celiac disease and risk of coronary heart disease: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2017; 357: j1892.
  7. Rai SK, Fung TT. Lu N, Keller SF, Curhan GC, Choi HK. The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet, Western diet and risk of gout in men: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2017; 357: j1794.
  8. Godlee F. Red meat: another inconvenient truth. BMJ. 2017; 357: j2278.